Hurricane Season Will Be Even More Active Than Previously Predicted, NOAA Says

Two months into the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is now saying it's going to be even more active than initially predicted.

This season, Hurricane Elsa became the earliest fifth-named storm on record. The next storm to be named will be named Fred.
Photo Credit: *NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center*

On Wednesday, Aug. 4, NOAA scientists updated their original hurricane season forecast.
Photo Credit: *NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center*

Joe Lombardi

08/05/2021 8:00 a.m.

On Wednesday, Aug. 4, NOAA scientists updated their original hurricane season forecast, which was released on Thursday, May 20.

NOAA forecasters have updated their Atlantic prediction to 15 to 21 named storms, of which seven to 10 could become hurricanes, including three to five “major” hurricanes.

The potential emergence of La Niña, reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced west African monsoon are all contributing factors to the above-average outcome forecast for this season, NOAA said.

This season, Hurricane Elsa became the earliest fifth-named storm on record. The next storm to be named will be named Fred. (See the first image above.)

The probability of an above-normal season has risen from 60 percent to 65 percent, leaving only a 25 percent chance of a normal season. (Click on the second image above.)

The hurricane season began on Tuesday, June 1, and ends on Tuesday, Nov. 30.

To view the new NOAA update, click here.

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